Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
