Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
