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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still