Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
